Nice write-up... Something to be aware of is that the company has recently walked away from its 2025 guidance. Analysts now forecast EUR 101-105mn of EBITDA for 2025. A comparable company is Fagron, listed in the Brussels. They are Ceban's largest competitor in the Netherlands and have a broader global business. They are also quite interesting.
Very helpful comment, thank you. I did note that analysts were clustering a bit low of managements guide on 2025 EBITDA but I wasn't sure whether this was because management had changed the guide (perhaps in the Q&A session of the earnings calls which doesn't seem to be available on Bloomberg) or whether analysts were extrapolating from the lowered midpoint of the 2024 guide. Fagron does seem like an excellent comp. Looks like trading 14x 2025 numbers so below my target of 18x for Medios but ~double the current multiple assuming 2025 guide is hit. I will look more into them.
Note that Medios does not have the 2025 numbers in their most recent investor presentation (they included those in previous investor presentations). For what it's worth, I think Fagron is undervalued, but do think it is a better business than Medios.
The German market in general is just tough from a regulatory perspective. There are some opportunities should they make changes such as allowing bulk compounding (versus one to one) or allow the use of APIs versus patented drugs in sterile compounding both of which are allowed in most of the world and would be a big benefit to Medios should there be changes. This is all related to their PSP segment, which as you point out isn't a huge chunk of the profits, but is the most exciting growth opportunity. To be clear I think the wholesale business is solid and Medios is far too cheap. But this isn't as good a business as what Fagron has in Europe, where it is the largest distributor of APIs/branded products for pharmacies doing compounding and is the largest compounder of non-sterile products in the Netherlands, which is unique in allowing outsourcing in this area (what Ceban is doing). They have a very good position in Brazil, a totally different market, but one that has good growth. And the most exciting of all is their 503B business in the U.S., which is growing like crazy and seems likely to do so for quite a while.
Nice write-up... Something to be aware of is that the company has recently walked away from its 2025 guidance. Analysts now forecast EUR 101-105mn of EBITDA for 2025. A comparable company is Fagron, listed in the Brussels. They are Ceban's largest competitor in the Netherlands and have a broader global business. They are also quite interesting.
Very helpful comment, thank you. I did note that analysts were clustering a bit low of managements guide on 2025 EBITDA but I wasn't sure whether this was because management had changed the guide (perhaps in the Q&A session of the earnings calls which doesn't seem to be available on Bloomberg) or whether analysts were extrapolating from the lowered midpoint of the 2024 guide. Fagron does seem like an excellent comp. Looks like trading 14x 2025 numbers so below my target of 18x for Medios but ~double the current multiple assuming 2025 guide is hit. I will look more into them.
Note that Medios does not have the 2025 numbers in their most recent investor presentation (they included those in previous investor presentations). For what it's worth, I think Fagron is undervalued, but do think it is a better business than Medios.
Just because it is bigger and skewed towards just the compounding/API vs Medios with a ~50% weight to German wholesale and Netherlands local pharmacy?
The German market in general is just tough from a regulatory perspective. There are some opportunities should they make changes such as allowing bulk compounding (versus one to one) or allow the use of APIs versus patented drugs in sterile compounding both of which are allowed in most of the world and would be a big benefit to Medios should there be changes. This is all related to their PSP segment, which as you point out isn't a huge chunk of the profits, but is the most exciting growth opportunity. To be clear I think the wholesale business is solid and Medios is far too cheap. But this isn't as good a business as what Fagron has in Europe, where it is the largest distributor of APIs/branded products for pharmacies doing compounding and is the largest compounder of non-sterile products in the Netherlands, which is unique in allowing outsourcing in this area (what Ceban is doing). They have a very good position in Brazil, a totally different market, but one that has good growth. And the most exciting of all is their 503B business in the U.S., which is growing like crazy and seems likely to do so for quite a while.